建筑业连续9个月高位扩张 铁公基投资快速增长-7411威尼斯
发布时间：
2017-06-02
中国建筑业正在迅猛增长。一个正在湖北省监利县做工的农民工告诉21世纪经济报道记者，目前建筑工地普遍缺人，一个普通工人每天的工钱可达到200多元，小工每天100多元。普通工主要从事砌墙等工作，小工主要从事搬运等。缺人是因为现在的年轻人大多不愿意在工地打工，而老年人又干不了。
中国建筑业正在迅猛增长。
一个正在湖北省监利县做工的农民工告诉21世纪经济报道记者，目前建筑工地普遍缺人，一个普通工人每天的工钱可达到200多元，小工每天100多元。
普通工主要从事砌墙等工作，小工主要从事搬运等。缺人是因为现在的年轻人大多不愿意在工地打工，而老年人又干不了。
他这么说不无道理。
国家统计局数据显示，2017年5月建筑业市场需求不断增长，企业生产活动比较活跃。5月建筑业商务活动指数为60.4%，虽比上月回落1.2个百分点，但仍高于去年同期1个百分点，连续9个月位于60%以上的高位景气区间。
从劳动力需求看，5月建筑业从业人员指数为52.4%，比上月和去年同期上升0.5和2.5个百分点，连续两个月上升，建筑业企业用工量继续增长。
交通银行金融研究中心高级研究员刘学智认为，建筑业快速发展，主要原因是今年固定资产投资，特别是基建投资快速增长。
但是对建筑业也有不利因素。比如受房地产调控的影响，房地产投资增速有可能会逐渐下降。“总的来说，结合目前的投资状况，建筑业应该能够保持在较高的水平。”
建筑业连续9个月高位扩张
国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河认为，随着对基础设施建设和重点领域投资力度的加大，建筑业市场需求不断增长，企业生产活动比较活跃。
从市场预期看，2017年5月建筑业业务活动预期指数为65.8%，比上月上升0.7个百分点，企业对未来行业发展保持乐观态度。这与房地产业和基础设施的投资数据相吻合。数据显示，2017年1-4月份，全国房地产开发投资27732亿元，同比名义增长9.3%，增速比1-3月份提高0.2个百分点，高于去年同期的7.2%增速。
1-4月全国基础设施投资（不含电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业）29789亿元，同比增长23.3%，增速比1-3月份回落0.2个百分点。但是高于去年同期的19%的增速。
上述湖北监利的农民工告诉21世纪经济报道记者，现在到处都是建筑工地，到处都缺人。
国家统计局数据显示，5月建筑业新订单指数为54.1%，比上月回落1.3个百分点，高于临界点。建筑业投入品价格指数为58.4%，比上月上升5.6个百分点。建筑业销售价格指数为52.9%，比上月回落0.2个百分点。
上述建筑分项指数均超过50%反映出该行业整体上处于扩张状态。但是建筑业增加值增速并不算高。国家统计局数据显示，一季度建筑业创造增加值是8361亿元，名义增长了12.4%，但是实际同比增速为5.3%，高于金融业的4.4%，但不如房地产业的8.7%、工业的6.5%，住宿餐饮业的7.4%。
摩根士丹利华鑫证券宏观研究主管章俊认为，一季度建筑行业发展很快，但是实际增速不高，这说明建筑行业成本上升得比较快，特别是原材料成本，以及用工的成本都在上升。
从目前来看，房地产投资没有受到房地产调控太多的影响，另外整个基建投资规模还比较平稳。下半年，房地产投资增速回落的概率比较大，另外基建高速扩张可能会受到资金方面的影响，整个建筑行业未来增速可能会放慢。
“实体经济和政策层面的影响会体现在建筑业上，未来整体应该会温和回落。”章俊说。
“铁公基”增长潜力仍较大
为什么建筑业新订单指数和商务活动指数较高？这与铁路、公路和机场投资加快有关。
交通部公布的数字显示，1至4月份，公路建设完成投资4623亿元，同比增长33.1%，新改建农村公路5.1万公里，完成全年20万公里任务目标的25.5%。
另据发改委数据显示，1-4月民航建设累计完成固定资产投资235亿元，同比增长17.5%。1-4月铁路完成固定资产投资1544亿元，同比增长3.5%。城市轨道交通的增速尤为显眼。中国轨道交通网数据统计显示，2017年第一季度城市轨道交通投资完成501.01亿元，同比增长了523.22%。
石家庄铁道大学交通运输学院原副院长牛学勤告诉21世纪经济报道记者，目前城市轨道交通和全国的高铁、普通铁路建设不一样，前者投资主体是各地城市，民营企业也可以进行投资，而高铁和普通铁路投资主体是铁路总公司，一般按计划进行。
尽管地铁建设资金需求大、周期长，但是对于解决交通拥堵作用意义大，所以各地投资增长都比较快，未来若干年仍会加快投资。
据官方数据显示，“十二五”时期，交通运输基础设施累计完成投资13.4万亿元，是“十一五”时期的1.6倍。不过，“铁公基”未来投资增长空间仍不小。
据国务院今年年初印发的《“十三五”现代综合交通运输体系发展规划》，“十三五”期间中国交通运输总投资将会达到15万亿，其中铁路固定投资3.5万亿，公路7.8万亿，民航6500亿，水运5000亿。
从具体规划的数量看，“十三五”时期铁路、公路、轨道交通里程和民用机场数量将分别达到15万公里、500万公里、6000公里和260个，同比分别增长15%、9.17%、81.8%和25.6%，其中轨道交通里程增速尤为明显。
5月25日，交通运输部部长李小鹏在2017年中国民航发展论坛上表示，预计到2020年，高速铁路将覆盖中国80%以上的百万人口城市，铁路、高速公路和民航运输机场将基本覆盖常住人口20万以上的城市。
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