建筑业，自由竞争过去，垄断竞争到来-7411威尼斯
发布时间：
2017-03-22
“建筑前沿”编辑蔡敏统计了建筑业最具代表性的上市公司的市值，2.5万亿，其营业收入达到3.8万亿；相比总数8万家建筑企业，117家上市公司数量只占千分之一点五；营业收入却达到21%，利润达到24%，这样的比例不免让人遐想，建筑业的自由竞争阶段已经过去
“建筑前沿”编辑蔡敏统计了建筑业最具代表性的上市公司的市值，2.5万亿，其营业收入达到3.8万亿；相比总数8万家建筑企业，117家上市公司数量只占千分之一点五；营业收入却达到21%，利润达到24%，这样的比例不免让人遐想，建筑业的自由竞争阶段已经过去，垄断竞争阶段正在来临？如果不拿数据说话，多数人不会有这样的感觉；在人们的印象中，建筑业是高度分散的，市场是高度自由竞争的，而数据告诉我们态势正在变化，事实也正在改变细心研究者的看法，或许垄断竞争的时代正在到来，我们可以从四个角度看到这样的迹象：
今天如火如荼的ppp业务或许是垄断竞争故事的第一集，数万亿ppp业务实质上已经成为龙头企业之间的竞争，无论是各级政府拥抱建筑央企的口号，还是银行提供资金的心态，抑或最终签约统计数据的结果，无不显示这是真实的现实，截止今年10月的ppp项目统计数据，央企约占比60%，再加上地方国企、上市公司所完成的ppp项目，笔者预计会有超过90%的业务被抢走，在人口最多、建筑业最大的国家，被不超过50家建筑企业拿走90%的业务，二八定律已经非常明显，显然这已经不是自由竞争的市场。
建筑业正在推进的工程总承包业务将是垄断竞争的第二集，工程总承包不是所有人的盛宴，能从事这一业务的企业集团，以笔者的预计，并不会比开展ppp业务的企业多；8万家建筑企业中，99%的企业没有从事工程总承包的能力，在可以预见的未来也不可能塑造出工程总承包能力。
第三集则是建筑工业化，正在迅速增长的建筑工业化业务，又能有多少成功者？笔者和从事建筑工业化的人士沟通，他们深感做建筑工业化的难度，某大型民营企业投入近10亿的巨资从事建筑工业化的产品研发、制造，据公开资料，其已经申请的专利已经超过1000项，目前尚处在亏损之中，且倍感建筑工业化道路之难；8万家建筑企业中能投入5亿以上从事建筑工业化研发的企业不会太多，没有研发的投入，在技术标准和行业并不成熟的背景下，成功概率可想而知，这是一般企业难以承受之重，笔者和建筑工业化资深人士（或许还不算资深人士，真正的资深人士还走在路上）探讨，一致的看法是，在中国建筑工业化领域很难有超过20家的成功者，此外可能还有50家左右的生存者，其他进入者恐怕多数是失败者；即使我们乐观估计有100家成功者，占8万家企业的比例又有多高？
最接近结果的第四集则是兼并收购，目前，“建筑前沿”正受托发布一些兼并收购的信息，从发布的信息看，有收购意愿的主要是大型企业集团，要么是央企，要么是地方大型集团，他们要收购设计院完善自己的能力，要收购过去未做过的业务来完善自己的专业领域，如果没有战略的雄心，没有资源，我想他们大概不会随意伸出橄榄枝，去购买那些能力并不算强、规模也并不算大的企业；与此形成对比的是，来自大型民营企业的收购信息却寥寥无几，来自中小型企业的收购信息几乎绝迹。
吴光龙先生在“建筑前沿”发表的“谁会在新一轮的建筑业转型升级中出局”一文，或许他还是比较乐观的，如果建筑业的垄断时代到来，出局的恐怕是绝大多数，我们可以泡一壶茶，边喝边想建筑业未来的图景：5年10年以后，房屋建筑会是谁在做？ 铁路、轨道交通会是谁在做？ 公路、市政会是谁在做？电力、电网、核电会是谁在做？装饰装修会是谁在做？
站在2030年回望今天的建筑业，或许我们正处在垄断竞争的初始阶段，而2030年的那个时点，已经是一派垄断竞争的新景象。终有一天，您会发现建筑业会像今天的汽车行业：谁是“整车厂”、谁是“零部件商”、谁将做“4s店”，作为旁观者，我似乎看到那副图景，看到它正在慢慢清晰，同时在我的内心出现这样的想法：无论你的愿望如何，图景所显示现实正在一步步走来。
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