钢材价格的三大乐观“猜想”-7411威尼斯
发布时间：
2017-03-29
现代商品经济也是信心经济。从2016年下半年开始，中国钢材市场参与者们信心逐步增强，所以市场购销活跃，补充库存增加。现货与期货成交量明显放大，“信心溢价”亦由此而生。需要指出的是，钢材市场信心及“溢价”的产生与增强，不仅源于向好的统计数据，还来自于一些乐观前景猜想。目前来看，钢材市场至少存在三大信心乐观“猜想”： 一是继续钢铁去产能，全部取缔“地条钢”。按照主管部门部署，在2016年压
现代商品经济也是信心经济。从2016年下半年开始，中国钢材市场参与者们信心逐步增强，所以市场购销活跃，补充库存增加。现货与期货成交量明显放大，“信心溢价”亦由此而生。需要指出的是，钢材市场信心及“溢价”的产生与增强，不仅源于向好的统计数据，还来自于一些乐观前景猜想。目前来看，钢材市场至少存在三大信心乐观“猜想”：
一是继续钢铁去产能，全部取缔“地条钢”。按照主管部门部署，在2016年压减钢铁产能6500万吨的基础上，2017年要再压减钢铁产能5000万吨左右，而且要将“地条钢”产能在今年上半年彻底清除。不仅如此，2017年内还将严格环保执法，亦会对一些落后产能释放产生很大抑制。上述几个方面涉及到亿吨左右的实际钢材供应量。如果上述目标真的能够实现，哪怕只是实现一半，都会使得2017年钢材实际供应量，较上年有较多下降，势必明显改善供求关系，产生钢材行情积极影响。
二是特朗普万亿美元基础设施建设效应。美国新总统特朗普上台执政后，提出要重建美国道路、桥梁等基础设施，规模达1万亿美元，并且已经获得国会批准。此外，特朗普还要在美墨边境修高铁高墙。有人会问，基础设施建设资金如何解决？其实很简单，没有资金可以借；借不到可以自己印(由美联储购买建设债券)。我不相信，美国政府印出美元后，在国际市场上买不到商品，恐怕世界各国都争先恐后地将商品卖给美国。虽然特朗普叫嚷要用美国货，但如此规模的基础设施建设真搞起来了，估计美国本土也没有那么多的钢材可供，并且还要考虑成本差别，因此除了向中国进口外，别无选择。即便美国不进口中国钢材，所需钢材全部自产，对于国际钢材及冶炼原料市场而言，也都是一个好消息，最终因为全球总量需求增加，直接与间接刺激国际市场与中国国内钢材价格走高。
三是房地产市场升温将带动钢材消费。据说，今年政府工作报告，补充了“要遏制热点城市房价过快上涨”这一重要任务。现在一些城市正在加强房地产市场管控，尤其是住房销售的管控。这些动作均反映了目前全国房地产市场快速升温的现实。据有关资料，2016年住房销售金额增幅超过3成的省份有14个，增幅超过4成的省份有9个，个别的接近成倍增长。今年前2个月累计，全国商品房销售面积又同比增长25.1%，增速比去年全年提高2.6个百分点，全国商品房销售额则增长26%。房地产市场升温推动了个人住房按揭贷款的大幅增长。今年1月份全国个人住房按揭贷款同比增长32%，2月份，住户部门中长期贷款增长109%。房地产升温，尤其是住房销售金额与按揭贷款的大幅增加，将显著提高房地产商的开发能力，进而推动房地产开发投资的增加，最终增加钢材需求。统计数据显示，今年前2月全国房地产开发投资同比名义增长8.9%，增速比去年全年提高了2个百分点。其中住宅投资同比增长9%，增速提高2.6个百分点。在其推动之下，今年2月全国土地购置面积同比增长6.2%，是2014年11月以来首次正增长。房地产的升温，开工面积增加，也一定会刺激钢材需求增加。
也许正是上述三大钢材乐观前景“猜想”，提振了市场信心，致使中国钢材市场购买需求显著增加。所谓市场购买需求，是指市场上买卖成交的需求，包括现货市场与期货市场两个方面。钢材市场购买需求，其实是影响市场供求关系，影响市场价格的最直接需求。这类需求，涵盖了国内建设需求(固定资产投资需求)、工业生产需求出口需求和库存需求，数量上超出了表观消费，也超出了实际需求。从2016年下半年以来，中国购买需求的新亮点是补库需求与避险需求明显增加，所以沉寂多年的钢材“冬储”开始显现，所以钢材期货交易量大量增加，所以钢材市场上人气旺盛。
上述三大钢材乐观前景“猜想”，提振了市场信心，由此产生当前与未来钢材行情“溢价”。初步估算，其“信心猜想溢价”至少占据现有钢材价格上涨份额的20%左右，甚至达到30%(有观点认为有些品种钢材价格上涨1000元/吨，并非都是成本提高与实际供求关系改善结果)。如果上述“猜想”得到落实，比如今年“地条钢”与其它落后产能释放得到取缔。在其它条件不变的情况下，市场上一下子少掉了数千万吨的钢材供应量，可以想象得出，全国钢材价格，特别是螺纹钢等建筑用钢材价格将会怎样？钢材价格还会下跌吗？
由此可见，只要上述“乐观猜想”不消失，市场信心就会存在，因此而产生的钢材“溢价”也就会继续存在。当然，要是实际结果严重背离先前乐观“猜想”，比如“地条钢”与严重污染环境钢铁产能未能取缔，甚至因为价格上涨刺激而变本加厉，继续大规模增加钢材供给；再比如特朗普万亿美元基建规划仅为“口惠”，实际施工“泡汤”等，那就另当别论了。所有这些都会导致市场信心坍塌。而市场被“忽悠”之后，钢材价格势必报复性跌落，“过山车”行情亦将再次演绎。
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